Maximising expected value is generally regarded as the best strategy for making decisions when you know the value and the probability of each option. It’s the strategy used by economists, statisticians, poker players, risk management experts and pretty much anyone else who regularly needs to deal with uncertain outcomes. To see why, suppose that I offer you the same bet over and over again. In the long run, you’re almost guaranteed to make more money if you accept my bets than if you don’t: in fact, on average you’ll make $0.50 for every bet that you take.
