Industrial production, a coincident indicator, usually reaches its peak right as a recession (shaded areas) begins (Exhibit 2.3). Employment, another coincident measure of aggregate economic activity also tends to peak when recessions begin. For this reason, it is often the case that people feel best just when an expansion is ending. Conversely, they tend to feel the worst when a recession is ending because economic activity, measured by coincident indicators like industrial production and employment, for example, tends to be at its cyclical low point just as a recovery begins.
