1. People are overconfident. They are likely to think their ability to discriminate between the ability of two players is greater than it is. 2. People make forecasts that are too extreme. In this case, the people whose job it is to assess the quality of prospective players—scouts—are too willing to say that a particular player is likely to be a superstar, when by definition superstars do not come along very often. 3. The winner’s curse. When many bidders compete for the same object, the winner of the auction is often the bidder who most overvalues the object being sold. The same will be true
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