Spiegel points out that when riding with limited visibility (which is usually the case), we tend to ride according to a “risk composite.” We are vaguely aware of some really bad contingencies, but we also know that the odds of these actually occurring are small. Our response, as folk statisticians, is to slow down a little bit, as though we are weighting the bad contingency by multiplying it with its unlikelihood, and thereby arriving at the appropriate speed. But this is self-delusion. Our reduced speed is nowhere near as slow as it would need to be to avoid the hazard if it should occur.
...more
