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Laszlo Birinyi, in his book Master Trader, has calculated that a buy-and-hold investor would have seen one dollar invested in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1900 grow to $290 by the start of 2013. Had that investor missed the best five days each year, however, that dollar investment would have been worth less than a penny in 2013. The point is that market timers risk missing the infrequent large sprints that are the big contributors to performance.
A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing
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