measured P/Es are often referred to as CAPEs—cyclically adjusted P/E multiples. The CAPEs are available on Robert Shiller’s website, and the earnings are calculated as average earnings over the last ten years. (Similar calculations can be obtained by averaging the past five years of earnings.) The Shiller CAPE in 2014 averaged just over 25. CAPEs do a reasonably good job of forecasting returns a decade ahead and confirm the expectation presented here of modest single-digit returns over the years ahead. But if your investment period is for less than a decade, no one can predict the returns you
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