The Monte Carlo Fallacy (or Gambler’s Fallacy) is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen less frequently in the future, presumably as a means of balancing nature. So if someone tossing a coin got six consecutive heads, one is lulled into believing that the next result will be a tail. The truth is that the odds haven’t changed. The odds of the next toss are still 50:50. The problem with the Monte Carlo Fallacy is that someone who has had a spate of good luck automatically tends to believe that his next venture will be
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