A great example the authors use is the submission of a paper to a journal. Let’s say the first journal’s editor rejects it. Then the writer submits the same article to a second journal. That journal’s editor, learning of the first rejection, is more likely to reject it. And if there’s a third journal, that editor, knowing of the two previous rejections, is even more likely to reject it. People assume other people are making sound judgments, even if those judgments contradict their own. This is bad. When you’re making a judgment about when you’ll likely deliver a multibillion-dollar project—or
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