I discussed the concept of hypothetical bias with the Cal-Tech professor.367 When scientists ask hypothetical questions—“Will you vote in this election?”—about 70% of study participants answer affirmatively. However, people’s real-life behavior differs dramatically from how they answer: Only around 45% of the people in the study actually voted. In races where a 1%-point swing can determine an election, a 25% difference between intention and behavior is massive. No wonder political pollsters keep getting their projections so wrong.
Hypothetical bias
