In the Bayesian framework, how much you believe something after you see the evidence depends not just on what the evidence shows, but on how much you believed it to begin with. That may seem troubling. Isn’t science supposed to be objective? You’d like to say that your beliefs are based on evidence alone, not on some prior preconceptions you walked in the door with. But let’s face it—no one actually forms their beliefs this way. If an experiment provided statistically significant evidence that a new tweak of an existing drug slowed the growth of certain kinds of cancer, you’d probably be
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