how many home runs should I expect to hit the rest of the way? The All-Star break divides the baseball season into a “first half” and a “second half,” but the second half is actually a bit shorter: in recent years, between 80% and 90% as long as the first half. So you might expect me to hit about 85% as many home runs in the second half as I did in the first.* But history says this is the wrong thing to expect.
