I might start flipping and get 10 heads in a row. What happens next? Well, one thing that might happen is you’d start to suspect something was funny about the coin. We’ll return to that issue in part II, but for now let’s assume the coin is fair. So the law demands that the proportion of heads must approach 50% as I flip the coin more and more times. Common sense suggests that, at this point, tails must be slightly more likely, in order to correct the existing imbalance. But common sense says much more insistently that the coin can’t remember what happened the first ten times I flipped it!
