The very nature of uncertainty is that we don’t know which of our choices will help, like attacking tobacco, and which will hurt, like recommending hormone replacement therapy. But one thing’s for certain: refraining from making recommendations at all, on the grounds that they might be wrong, is a losing strategy. It’s a lot like George Stigler’s advice about missing planes. If you never give advice until you’re sure it’s right, you’re not giving enough advice.
