In the same way, it’s not very likely that exactly the same number of drug patients and placebo patients expire during the course of the trial. I computed: 13.3% chance equally many drug and placebo patients die 43.3% chance fewer placebo patients than drug patients die 43.3% chance fewer drug patients than placebo patients die. Seeing better results among the drug patients than the placebo patients says very little, since this isn’t at all unlikely, even under the null hypothesis that your drug doesn’t work.
