There are really two questions you can ask. They sound kind of the same, but they’re not. Question 1: What’s the chance that a person gets put on Facebook’s list, given that they’re not a terrorist? Question 2: What’s the chance that a person’s not a terrorist, given that they’re on Facebook’s list? One way you can tell these two questions are different is that they have different answers. Really different answers. We’ve already seen that the answer to the first question is about 1 in 2,000, while the answer to the second is 99.99%. And it’s the answer to the second question that you really
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