In 1976 and again in 2009, the U.S. government embarked on massive and expensive vaccination campaigns against the swine flu, having received warnings from epidemiologists each time that the currently prevailing strain was particularly likely to go catastrophically pandemic. In fact, both flus, while severe, fell well short of disastrous. It’s easy to criticize the policy makers in these scenarios for letting their decision making get ahead of the science. But it’s not that simple. It’s not always wrong to be wrong.