How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking

by Jordan Ellenberg

Modern medicine and social science are not haruspicy. But a steadily louder drum circle of dissident scientists has been pounding out an uncomfortable message in recent years: there’s probably a lot more entrail reading in the sciences than we’d like to admit. The loudest drummer is John Ioannidis, a Greek high school math star turned biomedical researcher whose 2005 paper “Why Most Published Research Findings Are False” touched off a fierce bout of self-criticism (and a second wave of self-defense) in the clinical sciences. Some papers plead for attention with a title more dramatic than the claims made in the body, but not this one. Ioannidis takes seriously the idea that entire specialties of medical research are “null fields,” like haruspicy, in which there are simply no actual effects to be found. “It can be proven,” he writes, “that most claimed research findings are false.”