Most important, Scared Straight worked. One representative program, in New Orleans, reported that participants were arrested less than half as often after Scared Straight as before. Except it didn’t work. The juvenile offenders are like Secrist’s low-performing stores: selected, not at random, but by virtue of being the worst of their kind. Regression tells you that the very worst-behaved kids this year will likely still be behavior problems next year; but not as much so. The decline in arrest rate is just what you’d expect even if Scared Straight had no effect. Which isn’t to say Scared
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