How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking

by Jordan Ellenberg

52% of respondents said they opposed the law, while only 41% supported it. Bad news for Obama? Not once you break down the numbers. Outright repeal of health care reform was favored by 37%, with another 10% saying the law should be weakened; but 15% preferred to leave it as is, and 36% said the ACA should be expanded to change the current health care system more than it currently does. That suggests that many of the law’s opponents are to Obama’s left, not his right. There are (at least) three choices here: leave the health care law alone, kill it, or make it stronger. And each of the three choices is opposed by most Americans.* The incoherence of the majority creates plentiful opportunities to mislead. Here’s how Fox News might report the poll results above: Majority of Americans oppose Obamacare! And this is how it might look on MSNBC: Majority of Americans want to preserve or strengthen Obamacare! These two headlines tell very different stories about public opinion. Annoyingly enough, both are true.