When you reason correctly, as Silver does, you find that you always think you’re right, but you don’t think you’re always right. As the philosopher W. V. O. Quine put it, “To believe something is to believe that it is true; therefore a reasonable person believes each of his beliefs to be true; yet experience has taught him to expect that some of his beliefs, he knows not which, will turn out to be false. A reasonable person believes, in short, that each of his beliefs is true and that some of them are false.”
