The fact that we need to refine what we mean by “common sense” in order to accommodate our understanding of nature is, to me, one of the most remarkable and liberating aspects of science.
1. In quantum gravity, universes can, and indeed always will, spontaneously appear from nothing. Such universes need not be empty, but can have matter and radiation in them, as long as the total energy, including the negative energy associated with gravity, is zero.
2. In order for the closed universes that might be created through such mechanisms to last for longer than infinitesimal times, something like inflation is necessary. As a result, the only long-lived universe one might expect to live in as a result of such a scenario is one that today appears flat, just as the universe in which we live appears.