Inductive thinking can have devastating results. Yet we cannot do without it. We trust that, when we board a plane, aerodynamic laws will still be valid. We imagine that we will not be randomly beaten up on the street. We expect that our hearts will still be beating tomorrow. These are confidences without which we could not live, but we must remember that certainties are always provisional. As Benjamin Franklin said, “Nothing is certain but death and taxes.” Induction seduces us and leads us to conclusions such as: “Mankind has always survived, so we will be able to tackle any future
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