The Art of Thinking Clearly

by Rolf Dobelli

Similarly, female models advertise cosmetics and, thus, many female consumers believe that these products make you beautiful. But it is not the cosmetics that make these women model-like. Quite simply, the models are born attractive, and only for this reason are they candidates for cosmetics advertising. As with the swimmers’ bodies, beauty is a factor for selection and not the result.

Swimmer body illusion: Reverse causality. A doesnt cause B. B causes A.

It is the tendency to interpret new information so that it becomes compatible with our existing theories, beliefs, and convictions. In other words, we filter out any new information that contradicts our existing views (“disconfirming evidence”).

Confirmation bias: filtering out new information that contradicts what we already believe. Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. A good concept to know for NA Qs

was the weak point? Was it fatigue? If not, was the bridge damaged? If so, by what? Was a proper design even used? Where are there other bridges of the same design? The problem with all these questions is that, though valid, they just don’t make for a good yarn. Stories attract us; abstract details repel us. Consequently, entertaining side issues and backstories are prioritized over relevant facts.

Story bias: creating a narrative that highlights entertaining or interesting details to attract readers but leaving out relevant facts of the story because we hate abstract details or it would destroy our narrative if those details were included

Whenever you hear a story, ask yourself: Who is the sender, what are his intentions, and what did he hide under the rug? The omitted elements might not be of relevance. But, then again, they might be even more relevant than the elements featured in the story, such as when “explaining” a financial crisis or the “cause” of war.

How to think improve abstract thinking: when hearing a narrative, pick it apart and ask what the author is trying to hide and what is the author’s intention