But one shining exception to the general rule against graphing recent historical data into the future is Gordon Moore’s 1965 paper, “Cramming More Components Onto Integrated Circuits.” Moore looked at the transistor density of four recent chips released in the prior three years and observed that it had doubled every year. He argued that this trend could continue for at least the next 10 years. A decade later, he revised his prediction, speculating that chip density would continue to double every two years.
