we humans typically prefer to explain away pesky evidence rather than change our beliefs. The degree to which one has invested in a set of beliefs will largely determine how willing they are to argue away reality in the face of disconfirmation. If, for example, it’s the middle of the 1800s and you left everything behind on the East Coast to move your family west to homestead on a plot of land in Kansas, which is now all you own in the world, you’re pretty invested. When it all goes to hell, will you accept your mistake, cut your losses, and leave? Or will you fall for a second prophecy that
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