As with the PLA military gray-zone options discussed above, there is no path for Taiwan to achieve a military “victory” against a PRC blockade or quarantine. Taiwanese attempts to run or break the blockade with naval forces could result in kinetic clashes—providing the very pretext that China seeks to justify escalation. Again, Beijing enjoys military overmatch and will not back down from a fight with Taiwan. As discussed in the previous chapter, it is unlikely that Beijing would implement a blockade unless it was fully prepared to conduct an invasion.
