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In that game against Mainz, Ian Graham’s printouts demonstrated that Dortmund took 19 shots compared to their opponent’s 10. They worked the ball into Mainz’s penalty area on an impressive 36 occasions; their opposition managed only 17. Dortmund missed a penalty in the 70th minute, only to score an own goal four minutes later. Overall, Dortmund created 2.13(xG) to Mainz’s 0.93(xG). Based on these xG figures, there was only a 10 per cent chance that Dortmund would lose this game. They dominated by every conceivable measure, except the final score.
xGenius: Expected Goals and the Science of Winning Football Matches
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