Many of our existing analytic tools avoid an emphasis on dynamic processes and focus on equilibrium states. When transition paths are short and conditions are stable, such an approach may provide a good description of the world. In natural systems, however, equilibria are usually associated with the death of the system. The conditions that favor equilibrium analysis are likely the exception rather than the rule in many complex adaptive social systems. If so, the techniques that we traditionally use to analyze these systems may be like trying to “understand running water by catching it in a
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