Prediction: How to See and Shape the Future with Game Theory

by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

Say you and some friends are trying to choose between two movies. Anyone who really truly wants to see The Sound of Music (or fill in whatever first-run movie might grab your fancy) gets a value of 100, and anyone really committed to seeing A Clockwork Orange (another great old film) gets a 0. Then you should be able to rate how strongly each friend leans toward one movie or the other. Any who are truly indifferent get a 50; anyone leaning slightly toward A Clockwork Orange might be close to 50, say at 40 or 45, and so on. You or the “expert” you are interviewing need to calibrate their strength of feeling as accurately as possible. This way, movie preferences are turned into one value for each chooser—that is, each family member and/or friend involved in shaping the decision. The process is exactly the same, although the choices may be more complex, whether deciding what movie to see or addressing North Korea’s nuclear choices. Sure, the stakes differ, but once the essential facts are extracted, the process of turning stated objectives into a predicted outcome is the same.