John Lewis Gaddis, a world-renowned historian, now at Yale University but then at the University of Ohio in Athens, Ohio, invited me to spend a week with him and his students. Gaddis had written a paper in 1992 claiming that international relations theory was a failure because it didn’t predict the 1991 Gulf War, the demise of the Soviet Union, or the end of the cold war. Two well-known political scientists, Bruce Russett at Yale University and James Ray at Vanderbilt University, responded that Gaddis had not taken my predictive rational-choice work into account.1
