Prediction: How to See and Shape the Future with Game Theory

by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

First, the facts. In my experience, all that is necessary to make a reliable prediction is to: Identify every individual or group with a meaningful interest in trying to influence the outcome. Don’t just pay attention to the final decision makers. Estimate as accurately as possible with available information what policy each of the players identified in point 1 is advocating when they talk in private to each other—that is, what do they say they want. Approximate how big an issue this is for each of the players—that is, how salient is it to them. Are they so concerned that they would drop whatever they’re doing to address this problem when it comes up, or are they likely to want to postpone discussions while they deal with more pressing matters? Relative to all of the other players, how influential can each player be in persuading others to change their position on the issue? That’s all you need to know. That’s all? you might ask. What about history? What about culture? What about personality traits? What about almost everything else that most people think is important to know?