Prediction: How to See and Shape the Future with Game Theory

by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

Wait a moment, let’s slow down and think about that. The argument boils down to claiming that when the costs of war get to be really big—arms are out of proportion to the threat—war becomes more likely. That’s really odd. Common sense and basic economics teach us that when the cost of anything goes up, we generally buy less, not more. Why should that be any less true of war? True, just about every war has been preceded by a buildup in weapons, but that is not the relevant observation. It is akin to looking at a baseball player’s positive test for steroids as proof that he cheats. What we want to know is how often the acquisition of lots more weapons leads to war, not how often wars are preceded by the purchase of arms. The answer to the question we care about is, not very often.