The historian Niall Ferguson has argued that a big factor leading to war in 1914 was that the Austrians and Germans were uncertain of British intentions and that this uncertainty was caused by the British.3 Britain may have done well for a long time by muddling through, but that was not much of a strategy in 1914. Did the British really intend to defend Serbia, or were they bluffing? Certainly nothing they said or did at that time was sufficient to convince the powers of the Dual Alliance that defending Serbia was really important to Britain. This was an important failing on their part, and it
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