Nuclear War: A Scenario

by Annie Jacobsen

York hired a group of defense scientists, called the Jason scientists,39 to whittle that number down to its most accurate form. The result, Herb York learned, was 26 minutes and 40 seconds from launch to annihilation. Just 1,600 seconds. That is it. A copy of this secret assessment lies hidden among Herb York’s personal papers40 at the Geisel Library in San Diego. Perhaps York left it there out of carelessness, or maybe he wanted the world to know for certain what war planners and weapons builders have known for decades, but have never revealed in such cold, hard terms. That there is no way to win a nuclear war. It simply happens too fast. The speed at which nuclear war will unfold, and then escalate, all but guarantees that it will end in nuclear holocaust.

Launch on Warning policy means America will launch its nuclear weapons once its early-warning electronic sensor systems warn of an impending nuclear attack. Said differently, if notified of an impending attack, America will not wait and physically absorb a nuclear blow before launching its own nuclear weapons back at whoever was irrational enough to attack the United States.