Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

It is far easier to figure out if something is fragile than to predict the occurrence of an event that may harm it. Fragility can be measured; risk is not measurable (outside of casinos or the minds of people who call themselves “risk experts”). This provides a solution to what I’ve called the Black Swan problem—the impossibility of calculating the risks of consequential rare events and predicting their occurrence. Sensitivity to harm from volatility is tractable, more so than forecasting the event that would cause the harm.

Read the Black Swan, desperately hunting for this sentence -" a solution to what I’ve called the Black Swan problem"