We have brains that defy logic by using the Rule of Typical Things to conclude that elaborate predictions of the future are more likely to come true than simple predictions. At a time when we are constantly warned about frightening future developments, this, too, is not helpful. Most important, we have brains that use the Example Rule to conclude that being able to easily recall examples of something happening proves that it is likely to happen again. For ancient hunters stalking wildebeest on the savanna, that wasn’t a bad rule. In an era when tourists can e-mail video of a tsunami to the
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