VLADIMIR PUTIN’S ROAD to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine was not a straight line. But once the invasion was a reality, the most introspective of American officials looked back at the signals they had missed as the relationship between Russia and the West began to come apart. Most concluded that the United States had made a series of bad assumptions about how far Putin would pursue his ambitions. In retrospect, they blamed themselves—and the Europeans—for not pushing back faster and harder against the episodic acceleration of Putin’s aggressions, particularly the annexation of Crimea.
