The Return of Great Powers: Russia, China, and the Next World War

by Jim Sciutto

Prime Minister Kaja Kallas of Estonia recounted a dinner she attended with other senior officials from NATO allies during the Munich Security Conference in February 2023. “We had a very interesting dinner regarding Russia,” she told me. “What was interesting was that I heard very high officials from Germany and Luxembourg [and other] countries, say, ‘Oh, we can’t do this because it would provoke them to use the nuclear weapon.’ ” In the meeting, Kallas responded with a mild scolding. “I said there that if Russia is going to use [a] nuclear weapon, it’s going to be either on Ukraine or on us, but not on Germany, not on Luxembourg. If we are not afraid, so shouldn’t you be. If Ukrainians are not afraid, you shouldn’t be either,” she said. Russia, she argued, stokes and capitalizes on those fears to its advantage. “So they know. They use this threat because they know that the westerners really are afraid of this. And if you look at the damage that they have [already] caused in Ukraine, it’s bigger than any nuclear bomb.” Kallas believes that the risk of falling victim to Russian nuclear brinksmanship extends beyond Ukraine—that by retreating in the face of Russian nuclear saber-rattling, the West will empower authoritarians around the world. “Some are saying we shouldn’t talk about accountability, because then Putin is going to be the rat in the corner, and he has nothing to lose. So he will use [a] nuclear weapon, because he has no way out,” said Kallas. “But I don’t really ...