Russia is of course conscious of history as well, distant and more recent. In Kallas’s view—and she is not alone—one of the most influential lessons for Putin was the West’s muted response to Russia’s previous invasion of Ukraine in 2014. “If you see how they have evolved over time, first, they were ashamed that they were actually taking territory from their neighboring countries,” she told me. She continued, “Then they saw that nothing happened. Nothing happened. So next time they were braver.”
