The Return of Great Powers: Russia, China, and the Next World War

by Jim Sciutto

Estonians’ doubts—informed by more than a century of suffering under Russian broken promises, aggression, and subjugation—did not surprise me. But their doubts about their own allies did. “They hope that this will go away, and they don’t really realize that it’s here to stay. That’s a new normal. And we have to actually prepare,” Prime Minister Kallas said. Beyond talk of land for peace in Ukraine, Kallas sees worrisome precedents in NATO’s sometimes halting military support for Ukraine. “What I’m worried about right now, when they say, ‘Give Ukraine what you have,’ and then they say that they don’t have more, what if [Estonians] need help? Then they won’t have the people or the equipment to come here.” In her press conference that day at the downtown Tallinn hotel, as she announced the new ruling coalition and made the case for tax hikes to pay for her nation’s defense, Kallas described security as her government’s greatest responsibility. “Without security, we don’t have to talk about anything else. That’s why we’re increasing our defense expenditure to three percent [of GDP] in the coming years,” she said. She went on to emphasize that all nations must “do everything possible to secure themselves,” noting an article from the NATO treaty that doesn’t get discussed as often as the Article 5 commitment to mutual defense. “Before Article 5, there’s Article 3. Article 3, in the NATO treaty, says that everybody has to make everything possible to defend themselves,” she told m...