Everyone Believes It; Most Will Be Wrong: Motley Thoughts on Investing and the Economy

by Morgan Housel

1980s: Japan will take over the globe In 1986, Gore Vidal wrote that in the face of Japan's climb to economic dominance, "There is only one way out. The time has come for the United States to make common cause with the Soviet Union." His advice on the Soviets was provocative, but the idea that Japan owned the future was nearly ubiquitous. In 1991, former MIT dean Lester Thurow, wrote that, "If one looks at the last 20 years, Japan would have to be considered the betting favorite to win the economy honors of owning the 21st century." In 1988, former Reagan official Clyde Prestowitz said, "The American century is over. The big development in the latter part of the century is the emergence of Japan as a major superpower.”