The Wages of Destruction: The Making and Breaking of the Nazi Economy

by Adam Tooze

For Hitler, the central issue was one of timing. It was crucial to resolve the issue of Lebensraum before 1943–5, because after that point he expected Germany’s relative advantage in the arms race to decrease. Hitler’s reference to 1943–5 is significant because it suggests a modification of the timescale suggested in his Four Year Plan memorandum. Hitler was showing his awareness of the deceleration in the pace of rearmament over the last twelve months. The statement also indicates an awareness of the threat posed by the rearmament of the other European powers. And Hitler went further than this. If, prior to 1943, France were to be disarmed by a sudden escalation of internal social strife, as had occurred in early 1934, or if Britain and France were to be distracted by a conflict in the Mediterranean, then it might be profitable for Germany to act, even though its own military preparations were not yet fully completed. What this indicates is that though Hitler clearly understood the complexities of the armaments timetable, his decision for war would ultimately depend on the unpredictable evolution of the international scene.