The following base assumptions seem reasonable: that a surviving Kennedy would have kept his advisory team (which became Johnson’s) more or less intact, at least through the 1964 election; that he likely would have faced Goldwater in that election, as Johnson did, and would have beaten him; that, like Johnson, he would have wanted to keep Vietnam on the back burner until voting day; that the situation in South Vietnam would have deteriorated at more or less the same rate as under his successor; and that, therefore, crunch time for him likely would have come at about the same time as for
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