In their fascinating book Judgement under Uncertainty, Tversky and Kahneman describe a different variety of the seemingly irrational innumeracy that characterizes many of our most critical decisions. They ask people the following question: Imagine you are a general surrounded by an overwhelming enemy force which will wipe out your 600-man army unless you take one of two available escape routes. Your intelligence officers explain that if you take the first route you will save 200 soldiers, whereas if you take the second route the probability is 1⁄3 that all 600 will make it, and 2⁄3 that none
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