Tetlock tells us Foxes have three distinct cognitive advantages. 1. They begin with “reasonable starter” probability estimates. They have better “inertial-guidance” systems that keep their initial guesses closer to short-term base rates. 2. They are willing to acknowledge their mistakes and update their views in response to new information. They have a healthy Bayesian process. 3. They can see the pull of contradictory forces, and, most importantly, they can appreciate relevant analogies.7 Hedgehogs start with one big idea and follow through—no matter the logical
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