spent fifteen years (1988–2003) studying the decision-making process of 284 experts. He defined experts as people who appeared on television, were quoted in newspaper and magazine articles, advised governments and businesses, or participated in punditry roundtables. All of them were asked about the state of the world; all gave their prediction of what would happen next. Collectively, they made over 27,450 forecasts. Tetlock kept track of each one and calculated the results. How accurate were the forecasts? Sadly, but perhaps not surprisingly, the predictions of experts are no better than
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