The Art of Thinking Clearly: The Secrets of Perfect Decision-Making

by Rolf Dobelli

survivorship bias, you must do the digging

people systematically overestimate their chances of success. Guard against it by frequently visiting the graves of once-promising projects, investments and careers. It is a sad walk, but one that should clear your mind.

Quite simply, the models are born attractive and only for this reason are they candidates for cosmetics advertising. As with the swimmers’ bodies, beauty is a factor for selection and not the result.

In many cases, this plea was successful – and so pervasive that many airports banned the sect from the premises.

Dude whyare you earning from my customer fuck off only I can loot them.

Warren Buffett knows: ‘What the human being is best at doing, is interpreting all new information so that their prior conclusions remain intact.’

I told you rachel I am not fucking wrong.

‘Google is so successful because the company nurtures a culture of creativity.’ Once this idea is on paper, the journalist corroborates it by mentioning a few other prosperous companies that foster ingenuity. Rarely does the writer seek out disconfirming evidence, which in this instance would be struggling businesses that live and breathe creativity or, conversely, flourishing firms that are utterly uncreative.

Funny but true.

we systematically overestimate the risk of being the victim of a plane crash, a car accident or a murder. And we underestimate the risk of dying from less spectacular means, such as diabetes or stomach cancer. The chances of bomb attacks are much rarer than we think, and the chances of suffering depression are much higher.

What was it that Frank Sinatra sang? ‘Oh, my heart is beating wildly/And it’s all because you’re here/When I’m not near the girl I love/I love the girl I’m near.’ A perfect example of the availability bias.

:-)

The problem with all these questions is that, though valid, they just don’t make for a good yarn. Stories attract us; abstract details repel us. Consequently, entertaining side issues and backstories are prioritised over relevant facts. (On the upside, if it were not for this, we would be stuck with only non-fiction books.)

as football fans thinking they can swing a game by gesticulating in front of the TV. Unfortunately they share this illusion with many people who also seek to influence the world by sending out the ‘right’ thoughts (vibrations, positive energy, karma?. . .?).

its funny to hear those people who talk about "the secret"

The monkey story illustrates the outcome bias: we tend to evaluate decisions based on the result rather than on the decision process.

In conclusion: accept this piece of wisdom about auctions from Warren Buffett: ‘Don’t go.’

‘There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know,’ wrote Harvard economist John Kenneth Galbraith.

:-D

Since then, he has always felt uncomfortable on very warm days. If the temperature starts to heat up around one of his check-ups, he cancels straight away. Our brain is a connection machine.

itz true I remember certain fragrances which I feel are positive for me and others which are negative. Its natural.

Admittedly, in the short term the preponderance of stars can endanger your status, but in the long run, you can only profit from their contributions. Others will overtake you at some stage anyway. Until then, you should get in the up-and-comers’ good books – and learn from them. This is why I wrote the testimonial in the end.

great piece of advice

we are drunk on our own ideas. To sober up, take a step back every now and then to examine their quality in hindsight.

Most people tend to extrapolate their preferences on to others. If they love the 1960s, they will automatically assume that the majority of their peers do, too. The same goes for 1980s aficionados. We frequently overestimate unanimity with others, believing that everyone else thinks and feels exactly like we do. This fallacy is called the false-consensus effect.

seriously you haven't seen game of thrones :-D

We are blind to what does not exist.

Yeah we shoud be able to see that doesnt exist :-D

predisposition

‘Tell me the secret of your genius. How have you created the statue of David, the masterpiece of all masterpieces?’

Certain problems which looks impossible can be solved using this approach.