Whenever you are confronted with a scenario (and you are, every time you hear about an economic prediction, a corporate budget, a weather forecast, future climate change, a stockbroker saying what is going to happen to a particular holding), there are questions you need to ask that will help you decide how good a representation of reality is the underlying model. • Are the driving factors likely to unfold this way? (What are birth rate and death rate likely to do?) • If they did, would the system react this way? (Do birth and death rates really cause the population stock to behave as we think
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