Albert Bancroft

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You explain that the answer depends on how confident the network people would like to be in the announcement—or, more specifically, what risk they are willing to take that they will get it wrong. Remember, the standard error gives us a sense of how often we can expect our sample proportion (the exit poll) to lie reasonably close to the true population proportion (the election outcome).
Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data
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