candidate has earned 53 percent of the vote ± 4 percent, or between 49 and 57 percent of the votes cast. Meanwhile, the Democratic candidate has earned 45 percent ± 4 percent, or between 41 and 49 percent of the votes cast. And, yes, now you have a new problem. At the 95 percent confidence level, you cannot reject the possibility that the two candidates may be tied with 49 percent of the vote each. This is an inevitable trade-off; the only way to become more certain that your polling results will be consistent with the election outcome without new data is to become more timid in your
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